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什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

It's time to 'play defense' with stocks experiencing a classic bear-market rally, Wells Fargo warns

Stocks won't exit the bear market until the Federal Reserve's last interest rate hike, according to Wells Fargo.

Investors need to be cautious despite major indices' recent gains, CIO Darrell Cronk told Bloomberg TV.

"This very much looks like a bear market rally… you've got to play defense," Cronk said.

It's time for investors to get defensive and consider jumping out of stocks, which look caught in the middle of a bear-market rally, according to a Wells Fargo investment chief.

Darrell Cronk told Bloomberg TV he's skeptical about how well equities will perform over the rest of 2022, even though the S&P 500 has climbed more than 15% since hitting a low for the year in June.

"This is the question: Is this a bear market rally or the start of a new bull?" Cronk, CIO for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, said on Friday. "This to us very much looks like 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? a bear market rally."

"People forget that as bear markets get older, the bear market rallies get 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? larger. This is the largest one we've seen, we've had six S&P 500 rallies during this bear of 7% or greater."

He believes the S&P 500's recent rally isn't sustainable, given 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? the US benchmark has failed since April to break above its 200-day moving average. If stocks rise or fall through this key resistance level, it's seen as a change in long-term direction.

"The fact that we've failed off the 200-day to us still says that you've got to play defense," Cronk said — suggesting they pivot away from stocks, and into less risky and volatile markets such as bonds or cash.

The Wells Fargo CIO said bear markets don't end three things happen: housing market forward indicators hit a bottom, earnings estimates fall significantly or trough, and the Federal Reserve is on the verge of stopping its interest rate hikes.

"You've got to get closer to the Fed being at or within sight of their last interest rate hike," he said. "We think we're still probably at least six months away from that."

"So, bear market rally — play defense 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? here from a risk standpoint," Cronk said.

Markets have gained thanks to some investors' expectations that the Fed will pivot to start cutting interest rates soon. But Wall Street strategists have warned that the US central bank's current hiking cycle won't end until 2023.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC all said last week that the Fed will likely continue to hike until nominal rates are 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? at 4%, around 150 basis points above their current level.

– Dette er en bear-market-felle

De fleste strateger, økonomer og tradere mener USA-inflasjonen har toppet ut, men også at det kan ta flere år før inflasjonen er tilbake på 2 prosent.

Etter fire strake uker med oppgang ble det bråstopp for Wall Street fredag , og futureshandelen peker mot ny nedtur fra start i mandagens USA-handel.

Federal Reserve er godt i gang med aggressive renteøkninger for å få bukt med den høyeste USA-inflasjonen på over 40 år, og Fed-strategien vil komme i søkelyset for alvor senere denne uken i løpet av sentralbankens årlige Jackson Hole-symposium.

At investorene fortsatt bekymrer seg for om inflasjonen og renteøkningene vil kvele veksten, kommer klart til uttrykk i den siste MLIV 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? Pulse-undersøkelsen, der 68 prosent av de spurte ifølge Bloomberg spår svakere selskapsmarginer og nye børsfall.

Et flertall av 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? de 900 strategene, økonomene og daytraderne mener inflasjonen har toppet ut. Likevel er hele 84 prosent av 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? den oppfatning at det kan to år eller mer før Fed er nede igjen på inflasjonsmålet på 2 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? prosent.

I mellomtiden vil amerikanske konsumenter kutte forbruket, og arbeidsledigheten stige over 4 prosent.

Det er verdt å merke seg at S&P 500, selv etter noen uker med oppgang, fortsatt er ned 11 prosent i 2022 – mot 23 prosent på bunnen i midten av juni.

– Dette er en bear-market-felle. Inflasjon er 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? den store, stygge ulven. Selv om vi ser et vedvarende fall i inflasjonstakten, kan det ta en stund 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? før prisene faktisk kommer betydelig ned, sier gründer og partner Victoria Greene i G Squared Private Wealth til nyhetsbyrået.

Et flertall av de spurte i MLIV Pulse-undersøkelsen mener at forbrukerne vil kjøpe mindre de neste seks månedene, noe som er i tråd med advarsler fra Walmart om at inflasjonen tvinger kundene til å betale mer for essensielle varer på bekostning av større forbruksgoder.

Et kutt i forbruket vil ifølge Bloomberg 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? dra inntjeningen klart ned for S&P 500-selskapene som også sliter med høyere lønninger, stigende lagre og vedvarende forsyningskjedeproblemer i Kina.

S&P 500-marginene nådde toppen for et år siden, men vil ifølge tall fra Bloomberg Intelligence ikke nå bunnen før i årets fjerde kvartal. Konsensusestimatene for resultatmarginer (etter skatt) har – for både tredje og fjerde kvartal – falt rundt 0,5 prosentpoeng siden inneværende resultatsesong startet.

什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

With all the extra hand-wringing that comes with a bear market, advisors are easily distracted from keeping their eye on how to grow their business. It might seem counterintuitive, but times of crisis prove to be “fraught with opportunity” for advisors who know how to stay focused on the long game.

First of all, you need to buckle down on your existing clients. Even if you’ve counseled them well and they’re not panic-calling you, you need to keep them top of mind. Make sure you know exactly what’s happening to their portfolios. Stay up to date on what’s happening in their lives. Be even more proactive than usual and reach 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? out. Give them answers to questions they might have, but also give them new information that aligns with their goals. That will show them that you’re not only being optimistic, but that you’re thinking about their 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? best interests over the long-term.

A bear market is the time to focus on “wealth repair” strategies. Are 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? you up to date on the latest solutions? Do you need a refresher course… does your team? Have you been reaching out to fellow advisors for opportunities to collaborate on ways to better serve your clients? Now is the time when clients are sure to notice an extra effort and they’ll appreciate it.

In times of trouble, it’s the weaker cohort of advisors who will hide and avoid the tough 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? questions. You should be seen and heard—and not just by your clients, but by the community where your business thrives, and perhaps by the industry at large. Remember: advisors are hired primarily to resolve problems and to handle situations too complex for clients themselves. Now is the time to stand up—and stand apart.

When the market normalizes, it will be the proactive, visible advisor who will be rewarded—with deeper loyalty, longer relationships and more referrals.

Ultimately, it’s your ability to demonstrate sustainable organic growth that will attract a 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? premium for your practice. So anything you do during a bear market to keep your clients close – and at least happy that you’re there for them—this is all an investment in maximizing the value of 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? your business.

So, what can you do specifically to make lemonade during a bear market?

One recommendation is to embrace video as a preferred means of communicating with your clients, and beyond (think: community prospecting; 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? think: industry recognition). Just a few years ago, video was a bit of a novelty, but the pandemic 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? and the shutdown accelerated the acceptance of video as a platform for audiences and as a medium for advisors. Now there’s a proliferation of video content in the wealth management industry—but not everyone’s doing it yet, and not everyone’s doing it well.

When it comes to video communications, your job is the content. In 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? a bear market, with clients asking more questions than ever, it’s easy to develop short, insightful and 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? instructive messages that will truly resonate with your clients. In this market, you must have an opinion—and 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? based on that, you must have a strategy. Develop that into a communication, as if you were writing a letter to a cherished client. Now turn that into a video script. (Yes, all wealth services should 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? be customized to the individual, but there’s always significant broad-based information that clients can learn from.)

When it comes to shooting the video, leave it to your platform partners or outsourced marketing resources to create the entire package. Being independent never means you need to do everything yourself; it means you have the freedom to work with the best in the business. Your video production is no exception.

Pushing your 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? communication out to your clients in an engaging video over email, on your website, and across your social 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? media channels is an ideal way to demonstrate proactivity and achieve that visibility you need with your existing clients. And never underestimate the power of social sharing—which is a surefire way to attract prospects.

Remember: 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? by showing your clients you care and by sharing information that will give them comfort and confidence, you’re also building your brand—as an individual and as a firm. This is a way to “bottle the magic” of your business and formalize a process for marketing to prospects.

Having a recognized brand, backed by 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? a stellar reputation, and enhanced by a proven process and track record of organic growth will indicate to potential suitors in the future that your business is worthy of top-dollar consideration—because you’ve built something during a bear market that they can feel bullish about.

Jim Dickson is founder and CEO of Sanctuary Wealth.

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Reproductions and distribution of this news story are strictly 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? prohibited.

Has the bear market rally topped?

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